SUNDAY OPINION: By Prof Ashok Tiku, Senior China Affairs Analyst
The open nexus between China and Pakistan over the Gilgit-Baltistan issue is evident with the announcement in Pakistan on elevating the status of the Gilgit–Baltistan (GB) region, historically an integral part of Jammu and Kashmir, to the 5th province of Pakistan. The two neighbours are coordinating measures to ensure GB becomes the 5th province at the earliest and jointly prevents India from taking any military action on this illegal annexation with China providing the moral, political, tactical, and military support. The planned large scale military exercises by PLA in Tibet, amassing of troops and heavy military hardware has clear cut objectives and may be viewed as part of this overall plan. The objectives being:
- Pressurize and prevent India from undertaking any military action against Pakistan in the event of the region being annexed by Pakistan as its 5th province.
- In case of any warlike posturing by India, PLA to keep the Indian Army engaged on LAC.
- Help China legitimize its illegal road construction activities, Construction of Moqpondas Special economic zone in the CPEC corridor that passes through the region, and legitimize the presence of PLA forces to maintain security in the region.
- Secure China’s $ 60 billion investments and thereafter push for leasing of this debt-burdened region to China to exploit the natural resources in the region.
- China to secure a direct link to POK via Karakoram pass to save about 1500 km of the supply route currently operating via Khunzraba pass bordering Xinjiang.
- Beijing’s diplomatic and political gestures, overtones to resolve the LAC intrusions issue only aimed at gaining time and not to impact PLA’s action on the ground –the total disconnect between PLA’s actions and political-diplomatic engagements.
These objectives are to be achieved in two stages:
Stage one: Pakistan Speeds up the parliamentary process to get the relevant bills passed in Pak parliament to include the GB region as the 5th province of Pakistan. Thereby Legitimise china’s construction activities and investments in the region.
Stage two: China to secure a direct access road to the region via Karakoram pass to save about 1500 Kms detour link via Khunzraba pass bordering the Xinjiang region. Pak army to coordinate with PLA and increase pressure on LOC to ward off any aggression by India.
To complete the first stage quickly, Pak Army is using its influence in ensuring speedy completion of the parliamentary process. Pakistan media reports that the Pak Army chief along with the ISI chief met (Sept 16) 15 key opposition leaders to discuss the issue of “not dragging Pak Army into political issues“.
But the real purpose of the meeting as disclosed by Pak Railway Minister Sheikh Rashid was to ‘expedite and seek the support of opposition leaders to grant’ “provisional provincial status to Gilgit-Baltistan “. The opposition parties Alliance while confirming the meeting have separately stated that the issue would be taken up only after the scheduled 15th Nov elections in Gilgit- Baltistan to elect a 24 member legislative Assembly. Gilgit Baltistan leaders also seem to be divided over Pak’s 5th province plan. Local leaders are divided over the issue of whether to ask for more autonomy or seek the merger of the entire region that includes POK as a full-fledged province of Pakistan.
Facing increased pressure from China, the Pak army is attempting to expedite the move by using pressure tactics to browbeat the opposition in supporting the Army’s plan at the earliest. The Army seems to have succussed in creating a rift among the opposition alliance particularly PML-N. PML-N leader Maryam Nawaz Sharif has said that the issue such as GB should be decided in Parliament and not at the military headquarters and has accused her Uncle of hobnobbing with the military leadership forcing Mr. Nawaz Sharif to issue a warning banning his party members from holding any private meetings with military leadership. To help Pakistan seek time for the passing of this resolution in Parliament and prevent any pre-emptive attack from India in the GB region, China as always again succeeded in buying time through keeping India engaged in talks.
To accomplish the second stage of this Plan, while China is keeping India engaged in talks, it started making large encroachments in the critical Depsang Y-junction that controls the access to several areas of utmost importance to Indian defenses. This strategically located Depsang plains area about 18 km inside what India perceives to be its territory, has been occupied by the Chinese army blocking Indian army patrolling beyond their traditional patrolling points 10,11,11A,12,13 which fall short of India’s LAC claim and are well within the Indian territory. A core concern for China is also that this Depsang-Dalat Beg Olde (DBO) sector is in close proximity to the G-219 highway connecting Tibet with Xinjiang. For India DBO and the Karakoram Pass in the North are of great strategic significance and it would undermine Indian position if it allows PLA to continue to occupy it and get what it wants. To keep Indian forces under check and engaged, PLA has resorted to aggression in the Pangong Tso –Chushul and adjoining areas along the frontier with Ladakh only as a tactical bargaining posture. After accomplishing the objective of merging the Gilgit- Baltistan region legally with Pakistan, China would be forthcoming for half way adjustments at the transgressed area.
India has to assume that it will be at the receiving end of China-Pak joint aggression –overtly and covertly and has to be prepared for any eventuality. This big Pak-China Nexus is also aimed at securing a direct link road to POK via Karakoram pass to save about 1500 kms of the detour supply route currently operating via Khunzraba pass bordering Xinjiang. Beijing’s diplomatic and political gestures, overtones to resolve the issue are not matched by PLA’s action on the ground. There is a total disconnect between PLA’s actions and political-diplomatic engagements.
This writer fully endorses the views expressed by Mr. Brahma Chellany, Geostrategist “Indian governments have been putting more faith in diplomacy than the armed forces in achieving security objectives. The diplomatic blunders of 1948 (Kashmir), 1954 (Panchsheel),1960 (TIBET), 1966 (Tashkent), 1972 (Simla)have imposed tremendous enduring costs and yet India is not learning from past mistakes. Now, the Indian Government admits that China has trashed all those agreements with its aggression, yet is playing into china’s hands by clinging to past accords and is even willing to enter into a “new confidence-building measures agreement.” China has mastered and fully understands the weakness of Indian politicians to enter into new agreements for glorification. Otherwise, where was the need to sign so many pacts on the same issue again and again? Diplomacy is unlikely to deliver the status quo ante India is seeking.
The latest round of Commander’s level talks (6th) have achieved nothing and in fact, PLA has used the cover of diplomatic and military talks to crank up its military logistics and troop strength .it is unlikely that anything tangible would be achieved before making Gilgit- Baltistan as part of Pakistan. Till then Beijing would be buying time to prevent any Indian attack in the region and the possibility of anything tangible in bilateral talks is very little. Hope the government sticks to what Our Defence Minister has categorically and in an unambiguous manner stated “India will always patrol in its traditional areas and will not allow a unilateral change in LAC.”, “India will respond to any aggression on LAC and will never let China have what they want”. ”India will match China’s build-up at LAC. “This has been conveyed to Chinese leadership both at military and political levels”.
India’s consistent unambiguous Stand should be ‘no New Agreements, Maintain April Statuesque ante with China withdrawing first, Speed up efforts to resolve the border issue peacefully and don’t interfere in Gilgit -Baltistan region Historically an integral part of Jammu and the Kashmir State of India. It appears that the outcome of the dialogue with China is directly dependant on how soon Pakistan is able to merge the Gilgit Baltistan into a province of Pakistan. Thereafter, China could use the US preoccupation with elections in November to carry out the second stage of this plan with a surprise, quick, localized strike against India without seeking to start a war to regain the strategic peaks overlooking its defense lines and secure the new shorter link road access to GB region via Karakoram pass. India has to maintain the utmost vigilance against this Pak-China Nexus.
About the author:
Prof. Ashok Tiku, Former HOD, Amity School of Languages, Amity University Gurgaon is an authority on Chinese affairs with over 45 years of experience as an analyst. Born in Srinagar, Prof. Tiku did his Masters from Peking University, Beijing, and lived in China for 10 years.
