US departure from Ukraine leaves Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan frowning  

ACN OPINION: Russia-Ukraine war impact on East Asia

By Sanjeev K Ahuja, Editor-in-Chief, Asian Community News (ACN) Network

NEW DELHI: It was Afghanistan in 2021 when the U.S. stunned the entire world by abruptly exiting the troubled territory after decades of its occupation leaving its countrymen at the mercy of the ruthless Taliban. And now it’s Ukraine where the people feel cheated and deserted at the hands of the U.S. that initially seemed committed to defending them in the event of an attack from Russia. 

But much to the astonishment of the world, it did not happen.

At the last moment, the U.S. and NATO bluntly refused to send their forces to Ukraine to fight the invading Russian forces, which have been bombing Ukraine for the last many days undeterred. And the hapless citizens of Ukraine continue to suffer the onslaught of ravaging Russian forces, which are likely to be joined and supported by Chechnya guards as well adding to the miseries of Ukrainians.

For the want any outside support, the citizens themselves are forced to pick up arms to fight the professionally trained Russian forces.

In a face-saving exercise, the U.S. and NATO, instead, have washed their hands off by slapping economic sanctions on Russia, which seems unmoved, and continues to launch scathing attacks on Ukraine with the entire world including the U.S. watching it like mute spectators.  

Ever since U.S President Biden took office in 2021, the post-Cold War world order is on the verge of crumbling altogether, and global chaos reigns. The status of America as the world’s superpower is facing a daunting challenge from the assertive and expansionist China, the world’s no. 2 economic power already.

The U.S.-Japan Security Alliance, how practical?

Resultantly, the countries such as Japan that had adopted pacifist constitution in post-World War II scenario entering into a formal security alliance with the U.S making it pledges to defend Japan by maintaining a military presence in this island, has left frowning, and shaken from within.

People of Japan are now a worried lot, and think whether or not the U.S will defend their country in the event of aggression by assertive China, which has been bullying the world, especially Asian neighbors like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan with its continuous war rhetoric.    

As part of the security alliance signed in 1951 alongside the Treaty of San Francisco, the U.S has set up more than 80 military facilities in Japan. More US service members are permanently stationed in Japan than in any other foreign country.

However, the U.S. and Japan have also quarreled over U.S. military bases on Okinawa and cost-sharing and this factor continues to rankle the partnership.

While escalating the dispute over Japan’s financial contributions to the alliance, the Donald Trump administration had publicly accused Tokyo of not paying enough to house U.S. troops.

However, though President Joe Biden has so far downplayed this issue it continues to simmer underneath.

Is US-South Korea Security Alliance feasible in the post-cold-war scenario?

For years, the security alliance between the U.S. and South Korea has proved to be a successful model in terms of longevity and has also been successful in maintaining peace on the Korean peninsula. It has been keeping the nuclear-armed and hostile North Korea, and China at bay so far.  

But will this alliance continues to be feasible and even exist in the post–Cold War scenario is a matter of worry.

South Korea shares borders with North Korea and China, the imminent security threats whereas the U.S. is more than 10,000 km from it. Why distance matters are because the U.S. has emphasized the need for flexibility and resistance to the deployment of fixed assets for a single purpose, while alliance partners have resisted being dragged into out-of-area commitments in locations that are distant from immediate security interests.

Due to technological advancements, the US may prefer to project force from its own mainland without relying on forward-deployed forces such as in Japan, while overseas bases may become sources of vulnerability to direct attack by regional actors like North Korea and China.

With all these factors including Afghanistan and ongoing Ukrainian developments, South Korea has been building up its own defense power and military capabilities for the past many years to avert dependency on security alliances and cooperation alone. South Korea is on its path to attaining its own military capability and giving rise to self-sufficiency.

Only a few years ago many analysts were predicting the end of the US-South Korea alliance during the tenure of South Korea’s progressive president Roh Moo-hyun.

Most vulnerable Taiwan and the US’s assurance to defend it from China:

Ironically, Taiwan is a country that does not enjoy diplomatic relations with the US. Nor is Taiwan a member of NATO, very much like Ukraine, which is currently left alone on the pretext that it is not a NATO member, and NATO forces cannot defend a non-NATO member country except for slapping economic sanctions against Russia.

Will Taiwan also meet the same fate?

Richard Bush of The Brookings Institution once wrote in his article “The United States Security Partnership with Taiwan” that of all of the United States’ security partnerships around the world, the one with Taiwan is surely unique.

“Washington does not recognize or have diplomatic relations with the Republic of China (ROC) government in Taipei but instead recognizes the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in Beijing. Washington has an embassy in Beijing and conducts its ties with Taiwan through a nominally private organization, the American Institute in Taiwan. This makes Taiwan a rare case where Washington has a security partnership with an entity with which it does not have diplomatic relations,” he said.

But is the U.S. is in a position to be trusted in today’s scenario?

Joe Biden once promised to end Putin’s bullying techtics:

Remember the Joe Biden poll campaign in 2020 when he promised that, if he was elected, Putin’s days of ‘trying to intimidate’ Eastern Europe were over.

“Vladimir Putin doesn’t want me to be President. He doesn’t want me to be our nominee. If you’re wondering why – it’s because I’m the only person in this field who’s ever gone toe-to-toe with him,” Biden’s Feb. 21, 2020, the tweet read.

But ironically enough, just over 13 months since President Biden took office, the post-Cold War world order is on the verge of crumbling altogether.